13/05/2013, 10:13 | Italia | Nomisma S.p.A.
In the next three
years will expire 16 real estate funds with a total value of about
4.5 billion euro. Of these, in the light of the extensions already
approved, about 1.2 billion should be sold by the end of this year.
This figure is incompatible with the negligible size of the current
market, also due to the concomitant liquidation of the financial
instruments reserved for qualified investors considered elusive.
However, it will hardly be possible to be granted further delay
than that already fixed.
In fact, are being studied initiatives that would aim at
06/05/2013, 09:39 | Italia | Nomisma S.p.A.
Economic and social
frailty is a recurrent condition amongst different social groups.
One of the weakest links of the chain is definitely represented by
foreign nationals and one of the first signs of their difficulties
is the decrease of remittances sent to their origin countries. In
the last ten years, the increase of remittances from Italy has been
uninterrupted, reaching the total of 7.4 billion € in 2011 (+12.5%
compared to 2010 and + 63.3% since 2006).
According to the most recent data from the Bank of Italy, 2012 was
the first year recording a decrease (-7.6%) in remitt... [MORE]
29/04/2013, 09:23 | Italia | Nomisma S.p.A.
countries in which the practices of “green building” are a reality,
the Italian market cannot rely on a consistent demand of “green
families” as to create a real transformation in the sector and the
entire supply chain linked to housing.
Based on the findings of a survey conducted by Nomisma on a
representative sample of Italian families, only 3.2% of these
possess all the “green” requirements referred to housing and
traceable to international guidelines on energy efficiency and
While there i... [MORE]
22/04/2013, 10:35 | Italia | Nomisma S.p.A.
After the outbreak
of the economic crisis of 2008, the forecasts made by the major
Italian and international economic research institutes predicted an
increase of the 2010 GDP less robust than what it actually was (+
1% instead of 1.7% ex post).
Probably, such result gave the feeling of being definitively away
from the grip of the crisis and helped outline an overly optimistic
scenario for the following biennium. In fact, the second recession
wave that has hit our economy for the second half of 2010 has
definitely caught all experts by surprise: the forecasts made
between the beginning of 2010 and... [MORE]
15/04/2013, 10:43 | Italia | Nomisma S.p.A.
importance of supply and demand in the flow of credit is not a
simple undertaking. It is however, possible to obtain useful
information from the observation of some phenomena.
As regards the supply side of the Italian market, it is possible to
draw valuable insights both from the observation of the
relationship between lending trends to non-financial companies, and
from the ratio between investment and gross operating margin,
considering the latter as a proxy of the corporation’s financial
As illustrated in the figure below, the growth of loans to
08/04/2013, 09:43 | Italia | Nomisma S.p.A.
The real estate
market supply and demand are far from equilibrium. Not only on the
amount of demands and offers, but also on the quality of the "real
estate product". In response to a demand, at least potentially, in
average of 10% of energy-efficient homes, only 0.2% of the Italian
real estate falls within the highest energy class. Moreover, the
continuing contraction of effective market demand, compared to a
large increase in supply over the last decade, would not favor a
rapid transformation towards market-axis efficiency and
sustainability repeatedly reques... [MORE]
25/03/2013, 09:02 | Italia | Nomisma S.p.A.
The fall of the
purchasing power of households and the credit crunch continue to
influence the situation in the construction sector. Investments in
this sector have shrunk in the last three months of 2012 at a rate
similar to that observed in the previous three quarters (-1.1%).
Due to this prolonged downward trend, investments have declined by
23% since 2007. In particular, investments in housing fell in the
fourth quarter of 2012 by 0.6% (the decline in the last five year
amounts to -18%), those in other buildings and constructions
decreased by 1,6% (with a decline in the last five year... [MORE]
18/03/2013, 09:17 | Italia | Nomisma S.p.A.
It is surprising
that, despite the current crisis, in 2012 there have been more
newly founded enterprises than closed ones. However,
unemployment data seems contradictory: the number of unemployed
persons has been increasing since the second phase of the
recession. There are two possible explanations for this diverging
The first one is related to the labor market. Normally, during
recession cycles the discouragement rate increases, resulting in a
greater number of inactive people. In this case however, the loss
of purchasing power of families has brought many people, who were
11/03/2013, 09:20 | Italia | Nomisma S.p.A.
Institutions are signalizing a shiny growth at the end of 2013,
there are several data that underline the crisis and that turn away
the horizon of the economic rise. Also in the Italian real estate
market there is someone conjecturing about a “new spring” in the
earlier 2014. Apart from the difficulties on the offer side
(quality, sustainability, credibility), already highlighted by
Nomisma, we also have to consider changes on the demand side, that
has not been able to translate potential interests into effective
purchases for too much time. Among the parameters on th... [MORE]
04/03/2013, 09:05 | Italia | Nomisma S.p.A.
Currently, not only
families are affected by the dramatic effects of the economic
crisis. Enterprises too are facing increasing difficulties.
Commonly, it is the non-exporting enterprises who suffer most from
the fall of domestic demand. But what is the effect of the
current decrease of internal demand on Italian exporting
enterprises? If there is no doubt that the capacity to
export, more than the firm size or the sector of activity,
represents a key element for the success of enterprises, it is
uncommon to find “pure exporters”- i.e. enterprises whose revenues
come ex... [MORE]
25/02/2013, 10:26 | Italia | Nomisma S.p.A.
Among the heavy
legacies of a recession we can surely count the progressive
worsening of the credit quality. According to the last ratings,
the volume of the so-called “non-performing loans” should
become fixed on levels similar to those of the previous years (€107
billions in 2011, €115 billions in 2012), especially
thanks to the effect of the moratoria and to the banking attitude
of “postponing” as much as possible probable bad debts provisions.
Such amount results certainly moderate if compared to that of other
European countries of reference (&euro... [MORE]
18/02/2013, 10:28 | Italia | Nomisma S.p.A.
There are voices that
state that there will be a recovery in the second half of 2013.
However, it needs to take into account the legacies of the
recession. The latest was actually more indiscriminate, thus
hitting both the most productive companies as well as the potential
of the economy.
The reasons why the second recession has impacted in a far more
indiscriminate manner can be attributed to an unprecedented fall in
domestic demand and the block of the selective function of credit.
Credit institutions, dealing with weakened budgets due to the
financial crisis and suffering, are focused on... [MORE]
11/02/2013, 09:16 | Italia | Nomisma S.p.A.
begin to report slight evidence of recovery starting from last
months of 2013, in the next two years Italy must
necessarily deal with the effects of double-dip
The compression of domestic demand, which occurred heavily during
the last year, has effects not limited to companies which operate
into the Italian market, but also affects exporters, i.e. the
companies more productive. Italian manufacturing exporting
companies also operate largely throughout the country (65 per cent
of their turnover is obtained in the domestic market) and this has
04/02/2013, 09:01 | Italia | Nomisma S.p.A.
An approach used in
the economic analysis defines the potential of industry as the
degree of facilities’utilization, assuming that this reflects the
relationship between the actual production and the potential one
(quantity to be estimated). The two recession phases
occurred since 2008 have resulted in a strong decrease in the
potential, that has fallen to the levels of the early
nineties. Obviously, not all the fall is to be considered
totally permanent: the potential will return certainly to
increase with the activity recovery, yet the question is
28/01/2013, 09:02 | Italia | Nomisma S.p.A.
performance is one of the few indicators that still remain positive
when you look at the numbers of the Italian economy and the
European economy as a whole.
Even during 2012 characterized by a GDP reduction,
unemployment rising and credit critical situation, Italian
exports have continued to grow; so is the case that
the latest ISTAT data, referring to the period
January-October 2012, reported a growth rate close to
This figure, however, hides very different dynamics. The positive
result of Italian exports derives fro... [MORE]
21/01/2013, 11:20 | Italia | Nomisma S.p.A.
Italy has to
contribute to the saving objective of 20% of EU energy consumption,
according to binding national targets. It has been estimated that
an investment in energy efficiency of about 18% of the total public
real estate (offices and schools) equal to about € 24 billion would
result in an increase of the GDP of 1.4%.
However, the positive effects are amplified if there is a fiscal
policy accompanying private investment. As shown by the IMF, if
normally a fiscal stimulus of 1% (an expansion of the public budget
in relation to the GDP of 1%) causes a GDP increas... [MORE]
14/01/2013, 09:11 | Italia | Nomisma S.p.A.
The Italian economy
is going through the most serious crisis in its history. Worse,
according to some indicators, than that of the thirties.
Eighty years ago the economic crisis was long and deep, but less
than what is currently prospected for the current one. During the
Great Depression GDP per capita in volume recovered the
pre-recession peak of 1929, after eight years i.e. in 1937. In the
present scenario, based on the IMF forecasts in October 2012, the
GDP per capita in 2017 will still be significantly below the
pre-recession peak of 2007. Although a slight... [MORE]
24/12/2012, 09:02 | Italia | Nomisma S.p.A.
With the two recessive waves – that of
2008-2009 and the one which began in mid 2011 – the average
financial profile of Italian families has greatly
deteriorated. The minor decline of households spending has
resulted in a marked savings compression: it is not the result of a
reduction of income smoothed over time, considered transitional and
awaiting for better times, but on the contrary, it is the result of
real difficulties, or even the impossibility to set aside money,
given the persistent fall in real incomes and the incompressible
nature of certain... [MORE]
17/12/2012, 09:06 | Italia | Nomisma S.p.A.
one million families declare to be willing to buy a house,
as if to demonstrate the existence of a link which would exclude
short-term economic opportunism, as well as a vast demand
progressively compressed over the years of recession. As
many as 78.4% of these families have expressed their will to
proceed with the purchase activating a mortgage. In 2010
the same indication came from one family out of two. A dramatic
increase in demand, which comes after two consecutive years of
housing purchase loans’ slowdown and a context w... [MORE]
10/12/2012, 09:41 | Italia | Nomisma S.p.A.
latest figures published by ISTAT on the Italian labor market are
merciless: in October, unemployment rate settles at
11,1%, a level never reached since the late 90s;
youth unemployment rate (15-24 years) is as high as
36,5%, a value unobserved since the 80s. However, in
apparent contradiction, the number of employees remains
stable: in the third quarter of 2012 the number of
employees is even the highest since 2009 to today. What can be
observed, in fact, is an increase in the number of people seeking
work, in a labor market that holds th... [MORE]